Reset. Push Out. Pull In. These are the recurring themes Focus Management Group (“FMG”) is hearing as we work with borrowers and lenders dealing with performance to plan – actual and forecast through the end of 2024 and in to 2025.
First let’s consider the term reset. Reset is the law of unintended consequences related to the Covid 19 shut down and the liquidity burst consumers received from the government. Workers stayed home and had access to additional liquidity. As a result consumers purchased home improvements, electronics, sporting equipment, etc. This spend has helped contribute to lower sales volumes in many areas of the economy reliant on consumer demand. For example, most consumers do not purchase new golf equipment, ski equipment, pickleball equipment, big screen TVs, etc. every year. If a larger section of the population bought new equipment in 2020 and 2021, that impact will be felt for years resulting in lower sales volume today. If a consumer remodeled their home, they do not need to remodel again so soon. Even without the increase in interest rates, this reset is impacting demand and changing cyclical sales volumes.
Next let’s consider the term push out. Push out is a similar phenomena to reset that is being experienced by manufacturers. Orders expected in one month are being pushed out sometimes by a quarter at a time, and sometimes into the next year or years. The manufacturer has not done a bad job, rather their customer is experiencing demand slow downs or is responding to changing consumer demands. Manufacturers are left with inventory produced to stock that cannot be converted to accounts receivable and then cash. Or, manufacturers are left with raw materials and work in process inventory that if converted to finished goods cannot be sold. The trickle down effect of this is manufacturers are having to decide if production lines should be shut down, if staffing levels need to be reduced, etc. This is a difficult situation for manufacturers that rely on skilled labor to complete products. Overall, push out of orders is a difficult situation for management to navigate.
Next consider the term pull in. Normally we think about pulling in or pulling forward sales as a good thing for a business. The problem is when suppliers are the ones doing the pull in. Businesses that are purchasing from suppliers who are experiencing their own reduced orders may look at outstanding purchase orders as an opportunity to increase sales in the current period. This may result in accelerated funding needs to purchase inventory, especially in an import environment when payments often need to be made before shipments occur. In this situation, the pull in negatively impacts the business that is purchasing product.
What can businesses and their lenders do to respond to this situation?
Businesses need to prepare additional analysis to ensure they are as protected as possible.
Evaluate outstanding purchase orders. Should any orders be cancelled?
Evaluate sales forecasts to ensure the current situation is integrated in the sales forecast.
Prepare cash flow and borrowing base forecasts.
Evaluate the operating cycle of the business, looking for ways to reduce the days sales required to be financed.
Research industry statistics to evaluate changes to be considered to historic business cycles.
Re-emphasize and use the tools and strategies for working capital management:
Accounts receivable management. Past due account management.
Inventory aging and turnover by SKU analysis.
Accounts payable management – stretching vendors or putting payment plans in place.
Renegotiate with single source suppliers. If suppliers are dictated by customers, consider asking customers to assist in this negotiation.
As lenders are reviewing weekly and monthly reporting from their borrowers, consider asking additional questions about these topics – reset, push out, and pull in. Asking a borrower to consider the additional analysis noted above will help lenders and borrowers deal with this current environment.
Call Focus Management Group if you would like to discuss these topics. We welcome your thoughts and feedback.
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